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Stock markets to fall another 40% as severe stagflationary debt crisis hits over-leveraged global economy

Stock markets to fall another 40% as severe stagflationary debt crisis hits over-leveraged global economy

NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)—For a year now I have argued that rising inflation would be persistent, that its causes include not only bad policies but also negative supply shocks, and that the banks’ attempt power plants to fight it would result in an economic hard landing. When the recession does come, I warned, it will …

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Stocks and bonds are 'discounted for disaster' after worst period for investors in 20 years

Stocks and bonds are ‘discounted for disaster’ after worst period for investors in 20 years

Things could always get worse. The S&P 500 SPX index, -1.51% Friday cemented its worst monthly percentage decline since the March 2020 pandemic lockdowns, but also joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.71% and the Nasdaq COMP composite index, -1.51% booking the worst and first 9-month period since 2002, according to Dow Jones Market …

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'Painfully Slow Capitulation': Why Investors Keep Getting Inflation Wrong

‘Painfully Slow Capitulation’: Why Investors Keep Getting Inflation Wrong

A brutal third quarter in financial markets ended on Friday and one thing is crystal clear: inflation is the most important factor driving asset valuations right now and yet few, if any, are able to accurately predict where it is likely to go. . The reason? Professional forecasters, policymakers and traders all continue to dismiss …

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Stock market reversal?  Why October is known as a "bear killer".

Stock market reversal? Why October is known as a “bear killer”.

While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for equities, October tends to be a “bear market killer,” known for its historically strong returns, especially during midterm election years. . Skeptics, however, are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what is traditionally the toughest time for stocks …

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It was the worst September for stocks since 2002. What it means for October.

It was the worst September for stocks since 2002. What it means for October.

It was a September that investors will remember – and not in a good way. A drop on Friday left the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with their biggest monthly losses since March 2020. And it was the worst September performance for both indexes since 2002. Seasonal investors may wonder what that …

It was the worst September for stocks since 2002. What it means for October. Read More »

Dow Jones drops 500 points on Friday as stocks post third straight quarterly loss and set new lows in 2022

Dow Jones drops 500 points on Friday as stocks post third straight quarterly loss and set new lows in 2022

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest levels since 2020 and posting a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could drive the economy to slow in an attempt to quell inflation. What is happening The Dow Jones Industrial Average …

Dow Jones drops 500 points on Friday as stocks post third straight quarterly loss and set new lows in 2022 Read More »

Rate hikes spook the market, but equity investors focus on the wrong rate

Rate hikes spook the market, but equity investors focus on the wrong rate

The stock market was spooked by rising interest rates. Let’s think carefully, from a value investing perspective, about these fears. Warren Buffett has argued that investors should think of stocks as “bonds in disguise,” in that stocks pay dividends, analogous to coupons paid by bonds, and can be valued the same way. Bonds are regularly …

Rate hikes spook the market, but equity investors focus on the wrong rate Read More »

Market volatility replaces inflation as the biggest risk, raising the odds of a Federal Reserve pivot

Market volatility replaces inflation as the biggest risk, raising the odds of a Federal Reserve pivot

Market instability is the biggest risk for central banks globally, superseding inflation, due to massive leverage. So far the US Federal Reserve is lucky as there is low volatility in the SPX stock market, -2.11%, even if there is a bear market. Market stability gives the Fed space for the most aggressive rate hike campaign …

Market volatility replaces inflation as the biggest risk, raising the odds of a Federal Reserve pivot Read More »

Fannie Mae is launching a pilot program to include on-time rent payments in credit reports.  Here's why it could be a game-changer for tenants.

Fannie Mae is launching a pilot program to include on-time rent payments in credit reports. Here’s why it could be a game-changer for tenants.

When tenants pay their rent on time, it does little to improve their credit rating, while landlords reap the benefits of better credit by making their mortgage payments. This unbalanced situation is beginning to evolve in favor of tenants. Fannie Mae FNMA, +0.47%, the government-backed mortgage giant, announced on Tuesday that it was launching a …

Fannie Mae is launching a pilot program to include on-time rent payments in credit reports. Here’s why it could be a game-changer for tenants. Read More »

The Federal Reserve misses a crucial turning point in its fight against inflation because it believes in bad data

The Federal Reserve misses a crucial turning point in its fight against inflation because it believes in bad data

The Federal Reserve cannot see the probable economic crash that is coming because it is always looking in the rear view mirror, where it sees nothing but high inflation. The danger arises because the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditure price index – the two most important indicators of inflation – have a …

The Federal Reserve misses a crucial turning point in its fight against inflation because it believes in bad data Read More »